The future post-election year and the relationship with Iran. If the Democrats win in 2020, they wrote, they must work with America’s regional allies to reach a new deal with Iran, and never compromise Tehran’s regional destabilization drive.
The Trump administration’s policy toward Iran
He exert maximum pressure, But the goal was not clear, and the message was changing. Last year, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo put forward a list of 12 demands for negotiations with Iran.
While US President Donald Trump offered in June to be “Iran’s best friend.” At the G7 summit in August, he spoke of the possibility that Iran would become a very rich country for a long time.
As long as it agreed not to develop a nuclear weapon. While Pompeo’s list was a fundamental change in the regime’s nature, Trump’s thresholds look similar to the Iranian nuclear deal.
At this point, the Trump administration is neither close to recognizing Pompeo’s extreme position nor Trump’s narrow position. However, the maximum pressure campaign is causing serious economic hardship in Iran.
Taking into account that the IMF expected that:
- The Iranian economy to grow by 4% before the US moved away from the deal and re-impose sanctions in 2018 while at the moment.
- The IMF expects the Iranian economy to shrink by 6%.
What is Iran current position?
The Iranians now live amid a significant
- depreciation of their currency
- loss of savings
- high inflation
- failed business and industries
- High costs of basic food and medicine
Yet Iran’s leaders continue to reject negotiations, including an invitation to the White House, despite these enormous economic pressures.
What is the response of Iran’s leaders?
In response, Iran’s leaders are now applying their own version of maximum pressure on
- The United States
- Its friends in the Middle East
- Its allies in Europe
Iranian Subversive acts
- The sabotage of oil tankers
- The seizure of UAE and British-flagged ships, rocket
- Houthi drone attacks on oil pumping stations
- Saudi Aramco facilities and civilian airports in Saudi Arabia
- As well as attacks by Shiite militias near the US Embassy in Iraq
- The downing of a US drone
What are the aims of these measures?
All measures aimed at:
- The sign is that the Iranians can exert pressure on the oil market
- Create a rhythm between Washington and countries that accustomed to the security umbrella provided by the United States
A new deal with Iran
Iran’s decision to gradually abiding by some deal’s limitations on its nuclear program designed to pressure the Europeans
- In order to break US sanctions to meet Iran’s economic needs
- Face the prospect of a nuclear deal collapse
The initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron to provide credit facilities and loans worth $15 billion to Iran in return for compliance with the agreement, a testimony to the effectiveness of Iran’s pressure policy.